America's allies in the Gulf could be on the front line of Iranian reprisals after the assassination of military commander Qasem Soleimani inflamed fears of a disastrous escalation, analysts say.

Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' foreign operations arm, was killed Friday along with an Iraqi pro-Iran leader and their entourage by a US air strike near Baghdad international airport.

The strike, ordered by President Donald Trump, came three days after an attack on the US embassy in the Iraqi capital by a pro-Iran mob.

The Islamic Republic immediately warned of "severe revenge" and threats of reprisals were relayed by its regional allies including Lebanon's Hezbollah Shiite militant group and Yemen's Huthi rebels.

"This is this moment where Iran's proxy partners around the region are going to be called on to step up and support Iran. This is this moment that analysts have been worried about and warning about," said Sanam Vakil from the London-based Chatham House.

"These relationships that are quite separate are now going to be linked together in a transnational way."

The prospect of a coordinated response among Iran's militant allies "is probably the worst case scenario that we should be thinking about," she said.

Iraq, where the Islamic republic is most influential and from where the US has asked its nationals to depart immediately, would be the "easiest target", Vakil said.

But there are other possibilities. Several pro-Iran groups have the capacity to carry out attacks on US bases in Gulf states as well as against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz -- the strategic waterway that Tehran could close at will.

They could also strike US troops in Syria, American embassies across the region, or Washington's allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.

"War? Chaos? limited reprisals? Nothing? Nobody really knows -- neither in the region or in Washington -- because this is unprecedented," said Kim Ghattas of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

- Moderation, not confrontation -

The United Arab Emirates, an ally of the US and Saudi Arabia in their rivalry against Tehran, was the first Gulf nation to react, with Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash calling for "wisdom and moderation" rather than "confrontation and escalation".

"This is a huge escalation of an already unstable situation in the Middle East, the region cannot afford more tension," said Jaber Al Lamki, a media official with the UAE government.

"Those countries must be feeling very concerned about the potential fallout and the risk to their societies and their economies," said Vakil.

A string of attacks attributed to Iran has caused anxiety in recent months as Riyadh and Washington deliberated over how to react.

"Both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have watched the developments in Iraq over the weekend with great concern, fearing that Iran might respond against US forces on their territory," said Andreas Krieg of King's College London.

The timidity of the American reaction to devastating missile and drone attacks against Saudi oil installations in September led Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to adopt a more conciliatory approach aimed at avoiding confrontation with Iran "at all costs", he said.

Even though the Gulf states are united in condemnation of the attack on the US embassy in Baghdad, "none of them would take the risk at this point of being dragged into this spiral of escalatory violence," Krieg said.

If Tehran does decide to target American forces in the Gulf, it will have to do so without completely destroying its fragile relationships with Gulf states, by targeting US troops directly and without collateral damage, he predicted.

Aziz Alghashian, a specialist in Middle East affairs at the University of Essex, was sceptical that tough Iranian rhetoric will be followed by matching action.

"This is why the US strikes are significant, they delivered a robust message to Iran, and all who follow Iran, that if US officials are targeted, there will be a strong response."

While Saudi Arabia and the UAE may be targeted with "symbolic" retaliation, the two Gulf powers are relieved that the US is finally taking a strong line against their arch-rival, he said.

Iran and the US: months of escalating tensions
Tehran (AFP) Jan 3, 2020 - Tensions between Iran and the United States have been steadily escalating with Washington tightening sanctions, Tehran resuming nuclear activity and a series of incidents in the flashpoint Gulf.

After a US strike killed a top Iranian commander Friday, here is a recap.

- Terror blacklist -

On April 8, 2019 Washington declares Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps a "terrorist" group. Its Quds Force, which operates abroad, is also put on the blacklist.

On May 5, White House national security adviser John Bolton announces the deployment of an aircraft carrier and a bomber task force to the Middle East.

- Nuclear accord unravels -

On May 8, a year after Washington unilaterally withdrew from an international 2015 deal curbing Iran's nuclear programme and reimposed sanctions, Tehran warns it is prepared to resume nuclear activity.

Trump announces new measures against Iran's steel and mining sectors.

- Attacks on ships -

On May 12, four ships, including three oil tankers, are damaged in mysterious attacks in the Gulf that the United States blames on Iran.

On May 25, the United States says it is deploying 1,500 additional troops to the Middle East to counter "credible threats" from Iran.

Two tankers, Norwegian and Japanese, come under attack in the Gulf of Oman on June 13. Washington, London and Riyadh blame Iran, which denies involvement.

- US drone shot down -

Iran's Revolutionary Guard says on June 20 it shot down a US drone which violated Iranian airspace near the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump approves a retaliatory strike, but cancels it at the last minute.

On June 24, Trump announces "hard-hitting" financial sanctions on Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian military leaders.

On July 18, Trump says the US military has taken down an Iranian drone that came dangerously close to one of its naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

On July 1, Iran announces it has breached a cap on its uranium enrichment set out in the 2015 deal.

- Saudi oil attack -

On September 14, aerial attacks claimed by Yemen's Iran-backed Huthi rebels spark fires at two major Saudi oil facilities.

Tehran is accused by the United States and other powers of being responsible but denies involvement.

On September 20, Trump announces "the highest sanctions ever imposed on a country", hitting Iran's central bank.

On November 7, Tehran resumes uranium enrichment at its underground Fordo plant -- its fourth walkback from the 2015 nuclear accord.

- US backs protesters -

Iran is furious when the US expresses support for protesters who take to the streets on November 15 after a fuel price hike.

The White House condemns Iran for using "lethal force" in the days of violence which reportedly leaves scores dead. Iran's foreign ministry criticises "American economic terrorism".

- US strike kills commander -

On December 29, the United States carries out air strikes against bases of a pro-Iran group in Iraq, killing at least 25 fighters.

The strikes are in retaliation for rocket attacks against US interests in Iraq, including one in which a US civilian contractor is killed on December 27.

On December 31, pro-Iran protesters storm the US embassy compound in Baghdad expressing fury over the strikes. Trump warns Tehran it could "pay a very big price".

On January 3, 2020 a US strike kills top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander, in Iraq.

The Pentagon says Trump ordered the "killing" after the siege of the US embassy in Baghdad.

Related Links
All About Oil and Gas News at OilGasDaily.com

Tweet

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only

Oil prices surge after US strike kills Iranian general
Hong Kong (AFP) Jan 3, 2020
Oil prices soared more than four percent Friday following news that the US had killed a top Iranian general, fanning fresh fears of a conflict in the crude-rich region. The head of Iran's Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, was hit in an attack on Baghdad's international airport early Friday, according to Hased, a powerful Iraqi paramilitary force linked to Tehran. Later, Donald Trump tweeted a picture of the American flag, and the Pentagon said he had ordered Soleimani's killing. Brent surged 4.4 ... read more