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Russia expects some economic recovery by 2016
by Daniel J. Graeber
Moscow (UPI) Mar 19, 2015


Russia's economy is expected to contract by about 3 percent, though Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Thursday there may be a light at the end of the tunnel.

A forecast for 2015 by the Russian Economy Ministry expects export revenues to decline as Russian energy products wane from the world market. Siluanov said it was unclear how long the recession for the country would last.

"We estimate the drop in the annual rate of economic growth at around 3 percent," he said. "In our view, investment demand is the only possible source of recovery."

Russia's economy depends heavily on oil and gas revenue. A decline in energy prices on the world market, coupled with Western economic sanctions imposed in response to crises in Ukraine, has put a strain on the country's financial health.

The World Bank in December said it expected Russia's real gross domestic product should contract by 0.7 percent. That forecast was based on oil priced at $78 per barrel, nearly 30 percent higher than the current price.

The Kremlin last month said the industrial sector may help offset some of the economic pain, but real disposable income should decline along with investment activity for the midterm.

Nevertheless, finance officials in Moscow said Thursday they expect the annual rate of inflation to reach healthy levels by early next year.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its market report for March the Russian economy is expected to contract by 3.2 percent this year, compared to an estimated 2.4 percent forecast in the previous month's report.

"Russia's economy is forecast to face a significant decline," OPEC said.

The steep decline in oil prices presents "risks and uncertainties" to oil producers on both sides of the Atlantic, the market report added.


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