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Oil downturn nearly over, Norway says
by Daniel J. Graeber
Oslo, Norway (UPI) Sep 15, 2016


Norway acknowledges energy market pressures
Oslo, Norway (UPI) Sep 14, 2016 - Norway's government surplus is declining and, while still a central economic pillar, the economy is under pressure from low oil prices, the government said.

Norway estimated a general government surplus of $20 billion over the last four quarters, down by more than $7.2 billion from the preceding four-quarter period.

Last week, the government's statistics office said total investments in oil and gas extraction, and pipeline transport for the year are estimated to reach just under $20 billion, a 1.5 percent decline from the previous full-year estimate. Total investments in oil, gas, mining and other parts of the electricity supply will reach $26 billion, a figure that's 12.3 percent lower than last year.

Overall, employment prospects increased until 2014, but have since turned south.

"Falling oil prices from the autumn of 2014 onwards have led to a decline in employment," the government said in a report published Wednesday.

Oil production, meanwhile, has fallen steadily since 2001, though recovery is expected once new fields like Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg come online in the coming years. Norwegian energy company Statoil said the cost to operate the former has improved so that it will be competitive at lower oil prices. It recently dusted off plans, meanwhile, to develop the latter.

Norway is a leading supplier of oil and natural gas to the European market.

"Gas production increased from the mid-1990s, and today it makes up more than half of total oil and gas production, a share that is expected to rise in the years ahead, as oil production diminishes," the government reported.

Oil prices stage early-morning recovery
Crude oil prices staged a recovery in early Thursday trading on a smaller-than-expected build in U.S. inventories, though the rebound may be short-lived.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that crude oil stocks in the country declined by around 500 million barrels. While relatively small, the draw was not what market players expected after U.S. Gulf of Mexico operations returned to normal in the wake of Tropical Storm Hermine.

Oil prices started trading Thursday in positive territory on the build, however. The price for Brent crude oil was up nearly 0.8 percent to start the trading day at $46.23 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was up 0.7 percent to open in New York at $43.87 per barrel.

Demand for fuel products in the United States is on pace for a seasonal decline as summer vacation season ends. Drillers, meanwhile, are returning to work as efficiency improves and resilience to crude oil prices in the upper $40 range takes hold.

"All told, the market remains in a position of struggling to find a catalyst to move materially higher," Anthony Starkey, a manager for energy analysis at S&P Global Platts, said in an emailed statement.

Elsewhere on the demand side, the U.S. Labor Department reported first-time claims for unemployment increased 1,000 last week, while the less volatile four-week average declined by 500. After a 0.6 percent increase in July, U.S. industrial production dropped 0.4 percent in August, a trend mirrored by manufacturing output.

On the supply side, the U.S. Federal Reserve reported declines in coal-mining activity were offset by gains in oil and gas extraction. Elsewhere, the market could be pressured further on the supply side now that Libya is once again suggesting a recovery for exports, while Nigeria may be on the verge of a comeback.

"Any easing of the export disruptions in Nigeria and Libya will therefore translate into a picture of increased stock-builds for 2017," Olivier Jakob, the managing director at Swiss oil-market research group Petromatrix, said in an emailed statement.

Though crude oil prices aren't expected to hit the $60 range until 2019, the Norwegian government said its economy has started to move out of a standstill.

The Norwegian government's statistics office said weak economic growth in the latter half of 2016 has replaced an economic standstill, with gains in home-building and exports expected to provide a lift through early 2017.

"The fall in oil prices that began in summer 2014 has exacerbated the downturn in petroleum industry investments, which had already begun before the end of 2013," the government said Thursday. "The downturn that followed may now be coming to an end."

Norway is among the leading oil and natural gas exporters to a European economy looking to lessen its dependence on Russian natural gas reserves. Preliminary production figures for July show oil, natural gas liquid and condensate on the rise because fields in production were contributing more to overall volumes than initially expected.

Norway, however, said the drop in oil prices since 2014 led to declines in overall employment and the general government surplus of $20 billion over the last four quarters was down by more than $7.2 billion from the preceding four-quarter period.

Total investments in oil and gas extraction, and pipeline transport for the year are estimated to reach just under $20 billion, a 1.5 percent decline from the previous full-year estimate. In its projections Thursday, the government said the slump was in part due to a slowdown in its trading partners, though that's expected to reverse course next year.

"We assume that the decline in petroleum investments in terms of volume will be curbed considerably in 2017, and that the volume of investment will increase slightly in 2018 and 2019," it said.

On the price of oil, the government said it assumed $60 per barrel would be the norm by the end of 2019. Oil was priced at around $46 per barrel Thursday morning.

Fading balance prospects drag on oil prices
New York (UPI) Sep 14, 2016 - Already rattled by end-of-balance sentiments, crude oil prices continued drifting lower in early Wednesday trading on weak European economic data.

Reports this week from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency erased prospects that the gap between global demand for energy and supplies was narrowing and pushed oil prices lower this week.

Global oil demand was trimmed, while production from some parts of the world proved more resistant to current oil prices than previously estimated. That's in stark contrast to early-year sentiments from IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol that balance was returning.

Crude oil prices moved erratically in Tuesday trading, but shifted to negative territory at the start of the trading day Wednesday. The price for Brent crude oil was down 1.2 percent to open the day at $46.55 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was off 1 percent to start trading in New York at $44.41 per barrel.

Data released from the American Petroleum Institute show a gain of 1.4 million barrels in U.S. crude oil storage last week, against the previous historic draw sparked in part by curbed production in response to Tropical Storm Hermine.

Prices may be influenced later in the trading day after more formal data is released from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Morning prices were moved in part by data from the European Union that indicated a downturn in industrial productivity. For the 19 countries that use the euro currency, the region's statistics office said seasonally adjusted industrial production declined 1.1 percent between June and July.

European economic policy makers are charting a future course without the United Kingdom. In a speech Wednesday evening, Sabine Lautenschlager, a board member at the European Central Bank, said it was too early to draw any conclusions about the impact of the so-called Brexit.

"The impact seems to be smaller than many had feared," she said. "But it is in everyone's interest to pass through this phase of political uncertainty as soon as possible."


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