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OIL AND GAS
EIA forecasts push oil price indices to new low
by Daniel J. Graeber
New York (UPI) Nov 13, 2014


EIA cuts 2015 gas price forecast because of lower oil prices
Washington (UPI) Nov 13, 2014 - The U.S. Energy Department lowered its forecast for the annual average price for gasoline in 2015 by more than 10 percent because of falling oil prices.

The Energy Information Administration, the analytical arm of the Energy Department, said in its short-term market report for November it expected the average retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline to be $2.94 next year.

Motor club AAA reports a national average price Thursday of $2.91 per gallon. Citing an average for the week ending No. 3 of $2.99 per gallon, EIA said gasoline prices are at their lowest level in nearly four years.

"U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are projected to continue to decline for the remainder of the year to an average of $2.80 per gallon in December," EIA said in the market report published Wednesday.

The December forecast is 33 cents lower than anticipated in the October market report. The expected average price for next year is 13 percent less than the previous month's forecast and is "driven largely by falling crude oil prices."

More than 60 percent of the price at the pump is a reflection of crude oil prices, which have shed more than 20 percent of their value since June.

It was late September last time the U.S. average price for gasoline increased.

Crude oil prices continued their steady decline in Thursday trading after a U.S. administrator said total domestic oil production should increase short-term.

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, shed more than $1 early Thursday to trade at $76.18 for the December contract.

Crude oil prices have lost more than 20 percent of their value since June. Higher oil production in the United States means one of the world's leading economy is relying less on the foreign market to meet its energy demands.

In an October address on the nation's economy, President Barack Obama said the country is producing more than it imports for the first time in nearly two decades.

A report from the International Energy Agency said U.S. oil production gains should level off at some point in the 2020s, after which Middle East producers will again take the dominant market role.

Adam Sieminksi, director of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said Wednesday lower crude oil prices may curb drilling activity in some of shale basins, but net oil production should continue to increase because oil prices are high enough to support most drilling programs.

"Continued growth in global oil supply in the face of weak oil demand will push crude prices lower in the near-term," he said in remarks sent to UPI. "The average price for Brent crude oil is expected to be about $18 a barrel lower next year than previously forecast."

Brent, the global benchmark, lost more than $1 during the morning to trade at $79.15, moving below the $80 threshold for the first time this year.


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